Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.907639 1.059213 1.227972 1.429767 1.664517 1.929023 2.249761
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.653779 0.851888 1.097386 1.423893 1.846875 2.376611 3.091114
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.523808 0.738396 1.025402 1.437186 2.013103 2.790647 3.921825
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.418938 0.629654 0.929544 1.387207 2.068421 3.045999 4.558344
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.380508 0.604359 0.940439 1.481321 2.330703 3.615232 5.710222
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.319701 0.533592 0.870503 1.439205 2.376219 3.861448 6.401176
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.270280 0.472019 0.804028 1.389403 2.397116 4.064354 7.041096
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.231594 0.421803 0.747802 1.346238 2.419095 4.265884 7.697527
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.210370 0.398445 0.733209 1.371275 2.559232 4.680999 8.772886
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.201357 0.395652 0.753983 1.461490 2.826254 5.349583 10.388424
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.187291 0.381118 0.750861 1.505818 3.012028 5.889932 11.830310
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.171102 0.360013 0.732191 1.516877 3.133591 6.321059 13.111642
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.153820 0.334780 0.703107 1.505250 3.212539 6.686891 14.328644
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.138943 0.312578 0.677450 1.497667 3.299817 7.082530 15.666125
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.127794 0.296789 0.662962 1.511564 3.433883 7.590531 17.309312
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.112713 0.269980 0.621031 1.459008 3.414339 7.766014 18.240619
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.110463 0.272484 0.644532 1.557966 3.750263 8.764820 21.172793
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.098633 0.250450 0.608907 1.513683 3.746208 8.992194 22.329914
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.087715 0.229087 0.572046 1.461318 3.715481 9.152741 23.346085
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.078470 0.210631 0.539796 1.415930 3.695681 9.336228 24.442198
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.074007 0.203968 0.535975 1.442256 3.860690 9.992716 26.825196
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.073227 0.207029 0.557329 1.537114 4.216104 11.171124 30.722523
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.070133 0.203317 0.560495 1.583724 4.449202 12.062971 33.972388